Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments

  • Although global- and catchment-scale hydrological models are often shown to accurately simulate long-term runoff time-series, far less is known about their suitability for capturing hydrological extremes, such as droughts. Here we evaluated simulations of hydrological droughts from nine catchment scale hydrological models (CHMs) and eight global scale hydrological models (GHMs) for eight large catchments: Upper Amazon, Lena, Upper Mississippi, Upper Niger, Rhine, Tagus, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The simulations were conducted within the framework of phase 2a of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We evaluated the ability of the CHMs, GHMs and their respective ensemble means (Ens-CHM and Ens-GHM) to simulate observed hydrological droughts of at least one month duration, over 31 years (1971–2001). Hydrological drought events were identified from runoff-deficits and the Standardised Runoff Index (SRI). In all catchments, the CHMs performed relatively better than the GHMs, for simulating monthly runoff-deficits. The number of drought events identified under different drought categories (i.e. SRI values of -1 to -1.49, -1.5 to -1.99, and ≤-2) varied significantly between models. All the models, as well as the two ensemble means, have limited abilities to accurately simulate drought events in all eight catchments, in terms of their occurrence and magnitude. Overall, there are opportunities to improve both CHMs and GHMs for better characterisation of hydrological droughts.

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Metadaten
Author:Amit KumarORCiD, Simon N. GoslingORCiDGND, Matthew F. JohnsonORCiD, Matthew D. JonesORCiD, Jamal Zaherpour, Rohini KumarORCiDGND, Guoyong Leng, Hannes Müller SchmiedORCiDGND, Jenny KupzigORCiD, Lutz BreuerORCiDGND, Naota HanasakiORCiD, Qiuhong TangORCiD, Sebastian OstbergORCiDGND, Tobias StackeORCiD, Yadu PokhrelORCiDGND, Yoshihide WadaORCiDGND, Yoshimitsu Masaki
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-785921
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212
ISSN:0309-1708
Parent Title (English):Advances in water resources
Publisher:Elsevier
Place of publication:Amsterdam
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2022/06/04
Date of first Publication:2022/04/21
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2024/01/26
Tag:Catchment hydrological models; Global hydrological models; Hydrological droughts; ISIMIP; Model evaluation; Model validation
Volume:165
Issue:Art. 104212
Article Number:104212
Page Number:11
HeBIS-PPN:517755394
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Angeschlossene und kooperierende Institutionen / Senckenbergische Naturforschende Gesellschaft
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Sammlungen:Universitätspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International