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Turkey-Iran rivalry in the changing geopolitics of the South Caucasus
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract The South Caucasus has long been a theatre of Turkish and Iranian cooperation and rivalry. While these two regional powers have historically balanced their interests, there are signs that rivalry is taking precedence. Turkey's unwavering backing of Azerbaijan during the 2020 Karabakh War consolida... view more
The South Caucasus has long been a theatre of Turkish and Iranian cooperation and rivalry. While these two regional powers have historically balanced their interests, there are signs that rivalry is taking precedence. Turkey's unwavering backing of Azerbaijan during the 2020 Karabakh War consolidated Ankara's footprint in the region. Azerbaijan's retaking of the rest of Karabakh in the latest military strikes on 19 September 2023 makes a peace accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia more likely, furthering Turkey's interests, and potentially limiting Russia's role in the region. However, the prospect of a "less Russia, more Turkey" dynamic heightens Tehran's apprehensions towards Ankara. Particularly concerning for Iran is the clause within the Moscow-brokered ceasefire of November 2020 that mandates the rebuilding of a road and rail link connecting Turkey to mainland Azerbaijan via Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave and Armenia's south-eastern Syunik province; this risks marginalising Iran. In addition, Tehran is anxiously observing the deepening of ties between Turkey’s close ally, Azerbaijan, and Iran's key adversary, Israel. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Turkey; Iran; conflict; geopolitics; Caucasus region; foreign policy; pressure-group politics; international relations; Azerbaijan; Armenia; Israel; EU; Russia
Classification
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Rivalität von Staaten; Geopolitische Faktoren; Außenpolitische Interessendivergenzen; bilaterale Beziehungen; Nagornyj Karabach; Bilateraler internationaler Konflikt; Außenpolitische Position; Korridor (Verkehr)
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
6 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 49/2023
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2023C49
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications