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Challenges to Iran's role in Iraq in the post-Soleimani era: complex rivalries, fragmented alliances, declining soft power
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract On January 3, 2020, the Iranian Quds Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated by the United States in Iraq. He was considered the mastermind behind Iran's regional strategy, especially in Syria and Iraq. A year and a half later, the Islamic Republic continues to wield considerab... view more
On January 3, 2020, the Iranian Quds Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated by the United States in Iraq. He was considered the mastermind behind Iran's regional strategy, especially in Syria and Iraq. A year and a half later, the Islamic Republic continues to wield considerable influence in Iraq, and Iran-backed militias continue to violently pressure US forces to leave Iraq. However, Iran now faces a series of serious challenges that are directly and indirectly related to Soleimani's death. In the geopolitical and economic spheres, the influence of Iran's rivals in Iraq has increased, while Tehran’s room for maneuver has become increasingly limited. In the political arena, divisions among Iran-backed forces in Iraq have increased, while Iran's direct influence over the Iraqi government has been declining. At the same time, rising anti-Iranian sentiments among the Iraqi people have reduced Iran's social capital in the neighboring country. The combination of these factors seems to be limiting Iran's influence in Iraq. The EU should build upon this opportunity to support a strong Iraqi government that pursues a multi-vector foreign policy. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Iran; Iraq; international relations; security policy; defense policy; foreign policy; political influence; paramilitary group; geopolitics; pressure-group politics
Classification
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Einflusssphäre; Soft Power; Reduzierung/Rückgang; Nichtstaatliche bewaffnete Gruppe; Regionale internationale Prozesse und Tendenzen; Rivalität von Staaten; Soleimani, Qasem; Mord; Extralegale Hinrichtung; Religiöse Faktoren; Schia; Schiiten
Document language
English
Publication Year
2021
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
8 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 44/2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2021C44
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications