Impact of the tree prior on estimating clock rates during epidemic outbreaks.

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License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_DF510A0934A0
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Impact of the tree prior on estimating clock rates during epidemic outbreaks.
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Author(s)
Möller S., du Plessis L., Stadler T.
ISSN
1091-6490 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0027-8424
Publication state
Published
Issued date
17/04/2018
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
115
Number
16
Pages
4200-4205
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
Bayesian phylogenetics aims at estimating phylogenetic trees together with evolutionary and population dynamic parameters based on genetic sequences. It has been noted that the clock rate, one of the evolutionary parameters, decreases with an increase in the sampling period of sequences. In particular, clock rates of epidemic outbreaks are often estimated to be higher compared with the long-term clock rate. Purifying selection has been suggested as a biological factor that contributes to this phenomenon, since it purges slightly deleterious mutations from a population over time. However, other factors such as methodological biases may also play a role and make a biological interpretation of results difficult. In this paper, we identify methodological biases originating from the choice of tree prior, that is, the model specifying epidemiological dynamics. With a simulation study we demonstrate that a misspecification of the tree prior can upwardly bias the inferred clock rate and that the interplay of the different models involved in the inference can be complex and nonintuitive. We also show that the choice of tree prior can influence the inference of clock rate on real-world Ebola virus (EBOV) datasets. While commonly used tree priors result in very high clock-rate estimates for sequences from the initial phase of the epidemic in Sierra Leone, tree priors allowing for population structure lead to estimates agreeing with the long-term rate for EBOV.
Keywords
Bayes Theorem, Bias, Biological Evolution, Calibration, Computer Simulation, Ebolavirus/genetics, Epidemics, Evolution, Molecular, Genetics, Population/methods, Humans, Models, Genetic, Mutation Rate, Phylogeny, Sierra Leone, Bayesian phylodynamics, Ebola, molecular clock, phylogenetics, tree inference
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
04/09/2018 12:36
Last modification date
21/08/2019 7:10
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