Comparison of statistical models to predict age-standardized cancer incidence in Switzerland.

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_B657DC1E762E
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Comparison of statistical models to predict age-standardized cancer incidence in Switzerland.
Journal
Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift
Author(s)
Trächsel B., Rousson V., Bulliard J.L., Locatelli I.
ISSN
1521-4036 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0323-3847
Publication state
Published
Issued date
10/2023
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
65
Number
7
Pages
e2200046
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
This study compares the performance of statistical methods for predicting age-standardized cancer incidence, including Poisson generalized linear models, age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series, and simple linear models. The methods are evaluated via leave-future-out cross-validation, and performance is assessed using the normalized root mean square error, interval score, and coverage of prediction intervals. Methods were applied to cancer incidence from the three Swiss cancer registries of Geneva, Neuchatel, and Vaud combined, considering the five most frequent cancer sites: breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and skin melanoma and bringing all other sites together in a final group. Best overall performance was achieved by ARIMA models, followed by linear regression models. Prediction methods based on model selection using the Akaike information criterion resulted in overfitting. The widely used APC and BAPC models were found to be suboptimal for prediction, particularly in the case of a trend reversal in incidence, as it was observed for prostate cancer. In general, we do not recommend predicting cancer incidence for periods far into the future but rather updating predictions regularly.
Keywords
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, General Medicine, Statistics and Probability, Bayesian age-period-cohort models, age-period-cohort models, age-standardized cancer incidence, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized linear models, interval score, prediction interval, root mean square error, trend reversal
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
21/04/2023 13:28
Last modification date
24/10/2023 7:09
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