Epistatic models predict mutable sites in SARS-CoV-2 proteins and epitopes.

Details

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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_905A8698EB11
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Epistatic models predict mutable sites in SARS-CoV-2 proteins and epitopes.
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Author(s)
Rodriguez-Rivas J., Croce G., Muscat M., Weigt M.
ISSN
1091-6490 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0027-8424
Publication state
Published
Issued date
25/01/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
119
Number
4
Pages
e2113118119
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
The emergence of new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a major concern given their potential impact on the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus as well as the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. Here, we predict the mutability of all positions in SARS-CoV-2 protein domains to forecast the appearance of unseen variants. Using sequence data from other coronaviruses, preexisting to SARS-CoV-2, we build statistical models that not only capture amino acid conservation but also more complex patterns resulting from epistasis. We show that these models are notably superior to conservation profiles in estimating the already observable SARS-CoV-2 variability. In the receptor binding domain of the spike protein, we observe that the predicted mutability correlates well with experimental measures of protein stability and that both are reliable mutability predictors (receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve ∼0.8). Most interestingly, we observe an increasing agreement between our model and the observed variability as more data become available over time, proving the anticipatory capacity of our model. When combined with data concerning the immune response, our approach identifies positions where current variants of concern are highly overrepresented. These results could assist studies on viral evolution and future viral outbreaks and, in particular, guide the exploration and anticipation of potentially harmful future SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Keywords
Algorithms, Area Under Curve, COVID-19/virology, Computational Biology/methods, DNA Mutational Analysis, Databases, Protein, Deep Learning, Epistasis, Genetic, Epitopes/chemistry, Genome, Viral, Humans, Models, Statistical, Mutagenesis, Mutation, Probability, Protein Domains, ROC Curve, SARS-CoV-2/genetics, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/chemistry, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics, Viral Proteins/chemistry, SARS-CoV-2, data-driven models, direct coupling analysis, epistasis, mutability
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
25/01/2022 8:33
Last modification date
25/05/2024 7:13
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