Uncertainty as Unavoidable Good

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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_4BF75E9CB837
Type
Report: a report published by a school or other institution, usually numbered within a series.
Publication sub-type
Working paper: Working papers contain results presented by the author. Working papers aim to stimulate discussions between scientists with interested parties, they can also be the basis to publish articles in specialized journals
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Uncertainty as Unavoidable Good
Author(s)
Michael Piotrowski
Institution details
Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS)
ISSN
2941-2358
Issued date
2023
Volume
5
Language
english
Abstract
In digital history, uncertainty is generally regarded as an unavoidable evil. One generally aims to reduce—and ideally resolve—uncertainty in data as much as possible. However, information systems are not designed to handle the absence of information; we discuss how both SQL’s seemingly simple Null marker and the TEI Guideline’s elaborate facilities for recording “certainty” fail to address the challenges posed by uncertainty. Neither is big data and a “digital historical positivism” a satisfactory answer: the causal models that underpin historical narratives do not simply emerge from a collection of facts. Here, it is necessary to distinguish between two types of uncertainty: historical uncertainty, which concerns the facts of the past, and historiographical uncertainty, which concerns the causal models constructed by historians. The latter results from different interpretations of the causal relations between the facts; given our limited knowledge of the past, it is ultimately irreducible. But it is also this uncertainty that allows us to construct the narratives we need for sense-making. We argue that in this sense uncertainty may be regarded as an unavoidable good and that we should aim to design computational frameworks that treat it as an asset rather than an obstacle.
Keywords
uncertainty, historiography, causal models, epistemology
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / Projects / 105211_204305
Create date
30/10/2023 1:59
Last modification date
07/11/2023 8:10
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