Scenarios in the strategy process

This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory’s specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users’ specific intentions.

Metadaten
Author details:	Victor Tiberius ORCiD GND
URN:	urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-442907
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44290
ISSN:	1867-5808
Subtitle (German):	a framework of affordances and constraints
Publication series (Volume number):	Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe (119)
Publication type:	Postprint
Language:	English
Date of first publication:	2020/01/20
Publication year:	2019
Publishing institution:	Universität Potsdam
Release date:	2020/01/20
Tag:	Affordances; Management; Organizations; Scenario planning; Strategic foresight
Issue:	119
Number of pages:	16
Source:	European Journal of Futures Research 7 (2019) 7 DOI: 10.1186/s40309-019-0160-5
Organizational units:	Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
DDC classification:	3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Peer review:	Referiert
Publishing method:	Open Access
License (German):	CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
External remark:	Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle