Open Access

Mike Wenzel, Christoph Würnschimmel, Claudia Collà Ruvolo, Luigi Nocera, Zhe Tian, Fred Saad, Alberto Briganti, Derya Tilki, Markus Graefen, Luis Kluth, Philipp Mandel, Felix Chun, Pierre I. Karakiewicz

• Background: Recently, an increase in the rates of high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) was reported. We tested whether the rates of and low, intermediate, high and very high-risk PCa changed over time. We also tested whether the number of prostate biopsy cores contributed to changes rates over time. Methods: Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (2010–2015), annual rates of low, intermediate, high-risk according to traditional National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) and high versus very high-risk PCa according to Johns Hopkins classification were tabulated without and with adjustment for the number of prostate biopsy cores. Results: In 119,574 eligible prostate cancer patients, the rates of NCCN low, intermediate, and high-risk PCa were, respectively, 29.7%, 47.8%, and 22.5%. Of high-risk patients, 39.6% and 60.4% fulfilled high and very high-risk criteria. Without adjustment for number of prostate biopsy cores, the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for low, intermediate, high and very high-risk were respectively −5.5% (32.4%–24.9%, p < .01), +0.5% (47.6%–48.4%, p = .09), +4.1% (8.2%–9.9%, p < .01), and +8.9% (11.8%–16.9%, p < .01), between 2010 and 2015. After adjustment for number of prostate biopsy cores, differences in rates over time disappeared and ranged from 29.8%–29.7% for low risk, 47.9%–47.9% for intermediate risk, 8.9%–9.0% for high-risk, and 13.6%–13.6% for very high-risk PCa (all p > .05). Conclusions: The rates of high and very high-risk PCa are strongly associated with the number of prostate biopsy cores, that in turn may be driven by broader use magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).