Learning to forecast and cyclical behavior of output and inflation

  • This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model, agents may prefer to use the inconsistent forecast model, which generates an equilibrium where forecasts are inefficient. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of output and inflation match U.S. data surprisingly well.

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Metadaten
Author:Klaus AdamORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-10071
Parent Title (German):Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2003,01
Series (Serial Number):CFS working paper series (2003, 01)
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Year of Completion:2003
Year of first Publication:2003
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2005/06/13
Tag:Business Cycles; Inefficient Forecasts; Learning; Output and Inflation Persistence; Rational Expectations
GND Keyword:Inflation; Prognose; Ökonometrisches Modell
HeBIS-PPN:205405762
Institutes:Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht