Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises

  • Using a large international data set we analyze whether business cycle forecasters tend to herd or anti-herd. Applying different measures of economic crises, we distinguish between normal economic circumstances and times of crises. We fnd evidence for anti-herding behavior for most industrial economies, i.e. forecasters eliberately stick out their neck with extreme forecasts for strategic reasons. For a set of emerging market economies, by contrast, we find evidence for herding behavior. We relate this finding to the high incidence of economic and financial crises in these countries. A test for herding behavior during economic crises confirms that forecasters tend to herd in times of high forecast uncertainty.

Download full text files

Export metadata

Additional Services

Search Google Scholar Statistics
Metadaten
Author:Jan-Christoph Rülke, Maria Silgoner, Julia Wörz
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-311
Series (Serial Number):WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics (WP 12/03)
Publisher:WHU
Place of publication:Vallendar
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2012/09/15
Publishing Institution:WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management
Release Date:2016/05/20
Tag:Business Cycle; Economic Crises; Forecasting; Herding
Page Number:26
Institutes:WHU Economics Group / Chair of Macroeconomics and International Economics
Licence (German):Copyright for this publication