Decadal and multi-year predictability of the West African monsoon and the role of dynamical downscaling

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-172018
  • West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system. In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to anWest African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system. In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and landsurface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author: Heiko Paeth, Andreas Paxian, Dimitry V. Sein, Daniela Jacob, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Michael Warscher, Andreas H. Fink, Harald Kunstmann, Marcus Breil, Thomas Engel, Andreas Krause, Julian Toedter, Bodo Ahrens
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-172018
Document Type:Journal article
Faculties:Philosophische Fakultät (Histor., philolog., Kultur- und geograph. Wissensch.) / Institut für Geographie und Geologie
Language:English
Parent Title (English):Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Year of Completion:2017
Volume:26
Issue:4
Pagenumber:363-377
Source:Meteorologische Zeitschrift (2017) 26:4, 363-377. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0811
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0811
Dewey Decimal Classification:9 Geschichte und Geografie / 90 Geschichte / 900 Geschichte und Geografie
Tag:West Africa; decadal predictability; dynamical downscaling; geography; monsoon rainfall
Release Date:2021/02/11
Licence (German):License LogoCC BY-NC: Creative-Commons-Lizenz: Namensnennung, Nicht kommerziell