We develop a nonparametric instrumental variable approach for the estimation
of average treatment effects on hazard rates and conditional survival probabilities, without
model structure.We derive constructive identification proofs for average treatment effects
under noncompliance and dynamic selection, exploiting instrumental variation taking
place during ongoing spells. We derive asymptotic distributions of the corresponding
estimators. This includes a detailed examination of noncompliance in a dynamic context.
In an empirical application, we evaluate the French labor market policy reform PARE
which abolished the dependence of unemployment insurance benefits on the elapsed
unemployment duration and simultaneously introduced additional active labor market
policy measures. The estimated effect of the reform on the survival function of the duration
of unemployment duration is positive and significant. Neglecting selectivity leads to an
underestimation of the effects in absolute terms.
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