Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Strategy, Complexity and Cooperation: The Sino-American Climate Regime

  • Published:
Group Decision and Negotiation Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is applied to a potential climate negotiation between the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in order to gain strategic insights into how a successful agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could be reached. In light of the failure of many nations to meet their expected Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets and the lack of involvement of the world’s greatest emitters of airborne pollutants, the USA and PRC, there is a need to determine successful strategies for combating climate change. The issues surrounding the potential implementation of a bilateral agreement between the USA and PRC are systematically analyzed. Information gathered about the decision makers, options and preferences within the potential negotiations is utilized to create a valid conflict model which is used as a basis for carrying out strategic analyses. Moreover, a novel method is implemented within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain insights into the impact of attitudes on these negotiations. The strategic findings reflect reasonably well what actually occurred in November 2014 when the USA and PRC negotiated a bilateral deal.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Auffhammer M, Carson RT (2007) Forecasting the path of China’s \(\text{ CO }_{2}\) levels using province level information. J Environ Econ Manag 55(3):229–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bailey I (2008) Industry environmental agreements and climate policy: learning by comparison. J Environ Policy Plan 10(2):153–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baker P, Barrioneuvo A (2009) Obama reassures countries on US debt. New York Times, March 15. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/us/politics/15prexy.html. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • Bernard A, Haurie A, Vielle M, Viguier L (2008) A two-level dynamic game of carbon emission trading between Russia, China, and Annex B countries. J Econ Dyn Control 32:1830–1856

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernath Walker S, Hipel KW, Inohara T (2012a) Attitudes and preference approaches to representing decision maker desires. Appl Math Comput 218(12):6637–6647

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernath Walker S, Hipel KW, Inohara T (2012b) Dominating attitudes in the graph model for conflict resolution. J Syst Sci Syst Eng 21(3):316–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernath Walker S, Hipel KW, Xu H (2013) A matrix representation of attitudes in conflicts. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Syst 43(6):1328–1342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernath Walker S, Inohara T, Hipel KW (2009) Strategic decision making for improved environmental security: coalitions and attitudes. J Syst Sci Syst Eng 18(4):461–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernstein S (2005) Globalization and the requirements of “good” environmental governance. Perspect Global Dev Technol 4(3–4):645–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broder J (2011) At climate talks, a familiar standoff emerges between the U.S. and China. New York Times, December 8. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/science/earth/at-climate-talks-a-familiar-standoff-emerges-between-the-united-states-and-china.html. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • China (People’s Republic of) (2007) China’s climate change program. National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing (Government Document)

  • Council of Canadian Academies (CCA) (2015) Technology and policy options for a low-emission energy system in Canada. Report of the Expert Panel on Energy Use and Climate Change, CCA, Ottawa, ON, Canada

  • Curry B, McCarthy S (2011) Canada formally abandons Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change. The Globe and Mail, December 14. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canada-formally-abandons-kyoto-protocol-on-climate-change/article2268432/. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • DeCanio SJ, Fremstad A (2013) Game theory and climate diplomacy. Ecol Econ 85:177–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards PM (2005) The a to z of the Korean War. The Scarecrow Press, Lanham

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellerman A, Jacoby H, Decaux A (1998) The effects on developing countries of the Kyoto protocol and \(\text{ CO }_2\) emissions trading. Report 41, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA

  • Elliott L (2008) Credit crisis—how it all began. The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/05/northernrock.banking. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • European Council on Foreign Relations (2011) China analysis: China’s missing the energy debate. European Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China%20Analysis_Chinas%20missing%20energy%20debate_June2011%20%282%29.pdf. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • Fang L, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (1993) Interactive decision making: the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferguson N (2010) The G-2: are America and China headed for divorce? New Perspect Q 27(1):35–38

  • Fisher DR, Green JF (2004) Understanding disenfranchisement: civil society and developing countries’ influence and participation in global governance for sustainable development. Global Environ Politics 4(3):65–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser NM, Hipel KW (1979) Solving complex conflicts. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 9(12):805–816

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser NM, Hipel KW (1984) Conflict analysis: models and resolutions. Elsevier (North Holland), New York

  • Ge B, Hipel KW, Fang L, Yang K, Chen Y (2014) An interactive portfolio decision analysis approach for system-of-systems architecting using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Syst 44(10):1328–1346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamouda L, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2004) Strength of preference in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Group Decis Negot 13(5):449–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J (2009) Storms of my grandchildren: the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity. Bloomsbury, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Sato M, Hearty P, Ruedy R, Kelley M, Masson-Delmotte V, Russel G, Tselioudis G, Cao J, Rignot E, Velicogna I, Tormey B, Donovan B, Kandiano E, von Schuckmann K, Kharecha P, Legrande AN, Bauer M, Lo K-W (2016) Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence for paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that \(2^{\circ }\text{ C }\) global warming could be dangerous. Atmos Chem Phys 16:3761–3812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harvey F (2015) Paris climate change agreement: the world’s greatest diplomatic success. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/13/paris-climate-deal-cop-diplomacy-developing-united-nations. Accessed 12 Jan 2016

  • He S, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2017) A general hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution with application to greenhouse, gas emission disputes between USA and China. Eur J Oper Res 257(3):919–932. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2016.08.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Bernath Walker S (2011a) Conflict analysis in environmental management. Environmetrics 22:279–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Fang L, Heng M (2010) System of systems approach to policy development for global food security. J Syst Sci Syst Eng 19(1):1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Fraser N (1980) Metagame analysis of the Garrison conflict. Water Resour Res 16(4):629–637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Jamshidi MM, Tien JM, White CC III (2007) The future of systems, man, and cybernetics: application domains and research methods. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern C 37(5):726–743

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Kilgour DM, Fang L (2011) The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. In: Cochran JJ (Editor-in-Chief) with Cox LA, Keskinocak P, Kharoufeh JP, Smith JC (Area Editors), Wiley Encyclopedia of operations research and management science, vol 3, pp 2099–2111. Wiley, New York

  • Hipel KW, Obeidi A, Fang L, Kilgour DM (2008) Adaptive systems thinking in integrated water resources management with insights into conflicts over water exports. INFOR 46(1):51–69

    Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Obeidi A, Fang L, Kilgour DM (2009) Chapter 18 Sustainable environmental management from a system of systems perspective. In: Jamshidi M (ed) System of systems engineering: innovations for the 21st century. Wiley, New York, pp 443–481

    Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon T (2007) The upside of down: catastrophe, creativity and the renewal of civilization. Island Press, Toronto

    Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon T (2008) Chapter 2: Positive feedbacks, dynamic icesheets, and the recarbonization of the global fuel supply: the new sense of urgency about global warming. In: Bernstein S, Brunnée J, Duff DG, Green A (eds) A globally integrated climate policy for Canada. University of Toronto Press, Toronto, pp 37–55

  • Howard N (1971) Paradoxes of reality: theory of metagames and political behaviour. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Inohara T, Hipel KW (2008a) Coalition analysis in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Syst Eng 11(4):343–359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inohara T, Hipel KW (2008b) Interrelationships among noncooperative and coalition stability concepts. J Syst Sci Syst Eng 17(1):1–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inohara T, Hipel KW, Walker S (2007) Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812. J Syst Sci Syst Eng 16(2):181–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karas J (ed) (2006) Russia and the Kyoto Protocol opportunities and challenges. Chatam House, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy RF Jr (2004) The junk science of George W. Bush. Nation 278(9):11–12,15–16,18

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilgour DM, Hipel KW, Fang L, Peng X (2001) Coalition analysis in group decision support. Group Decis Negot 10(2):159–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinsara RA, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2015) Inverse approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Syst 45(5):734–742. doi:10.1109/TSMC.2014.2376473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madani K (2010) Game theory and water resources. J Hydrol 381:225–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madani K (2013) Modeling international climate change negotiations more responsibly: can highly simplified game theory models provide reliable policy insights? Ecol Econ 90:68–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madani K, Hipel KW (2011) Non-cooperative stability definitions for strategic analysis of generic water resources conflicts. Water Resour Manage 25(8):1949–1977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matray JI (ed) (1991) Historical dictionary of the Korean War. Greenwood Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • McCauley DJ, Pinsky ML, Palumbi SR, Estes JA, Joyce FH, Warner RR (2015) Marine defaunation: animal loss in the global ocean. Science. doi:10.1126/science.1255641

  • McKibbin WJ, Ross MT, Shackleton R, Wilcoxen PJ (1999) Emissions trading, capital flows and the Kyoto Protocol. Energy J 21(supplemental issue):287–334

    Google Scholar 

  • Milman O (2015) James Hansen, father of climate change awareness, calls Paris talks ‘a fraud’. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud. Accessed 21 Jan 2016

  • Mooney C, Dennis B, Mufson, S (2016) Trump names Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma attorney general suing EPA on climate change, to head EPA. Washington Post newspaper, December 8, 2016

  • Moore FC, Diaz DB (2015) Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy. Nat Clim Change 5:127–131. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2481

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nash JF (1950) Equilibrium points in n-player games. Proc Natl Acad Sci 36:48–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nash JF (1951) Non-cooperative games. Ann Math 54(2):286–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), The People’s Republic of China (2013) China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change. http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/201311/P020131108611533042884.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2015

  • National Post Staff (2011) Uproar as Justin Trudeau hurls four-letter obscenity at Peter Kent in House of Commons. National Post, December 14. http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/14/justin-trudeau-allegedly-calls-peter-kent-a-piece-of-s-in-commons/. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • Obeidi A, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2005) The role of emotions in envisioning outcomes in conflict analysis. Group Decis Negot 14:481–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1999) Action against climate change: the Kyoto Protocol and beyond. OECD Publications, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Pew and Asia (Pew Center on Global Climate Change with the Asia Group, Arlington, VA) (2009) A roadmap for US-China cooperation on energy and climate change. January 2009 (Position document). http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/US-China-Roadmap-Feb09.pdf. Accessed 4 Mar 2015

  • Pittel K, Rubbelke DTG (2008) Climate policy and ancillary benefits: a survey and integration into the modelling of international negotiations on climate change. Ecol Econ 68:210–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rapoport A, Chammah AM (1965) Prisoner’s dilemma. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbour

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Reilly M (2008) Obama and McCain: who is the greenest of them all? New Sci 197(2645):8–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager A (2009) China becomes world’s third largest economy. The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/14/china-world-economic-growth. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • Shupe MC, Wright WM, Hipel KW, Fraser NM (1980) The nationalization of the Suez Canal. J Confl Resolut 24(3):477–493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song Y (ed) (2006) Encyclopedia of Chinese-American relations. McFarland, Jefferson

    Google Scholar 

  • Sorman G (2008) Empire of lies: the truth about China in the twenty-first century. Encounter, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor L (2009) Climate talks set for failure as China dampens hopes. The Australian. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/climate-talks-set-for-failure-as-china-dampens-hopes/story-e6frg6nf-1225811570408. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • United Nations (2007) Kyoto Protocol. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • United Nations (2009) The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. http://ozone.unep.org/new_site/en/montreal_protocol.php. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • United Nations (2012) Durban climate change conference. http://unfccc.int/meetings/durban_nov_2011/meeting/6245/php/view/decisions.php. Accessed 22 Jan 2015

  • United Nations (2015) Adoption of the Paris Agreement. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf. Accessed on 20 Jan 2016

  • United Nations (2016) Marrakech Climate Change Conference—November 2016 http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php. Accessed on 10 Dec 2016

  • Von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theories of games and economic behaviour. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker S, Hipel KW, Inohara T (2007) Strategic analysis of the Kyoto Protocol. In: Proceedings of the 2007 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, held in the Delta Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, October 7–10, 2007, pp 1806–1811

  • Wang M, Hipel KW, Fraser NM (1988) Modeling misperceptions in games. Behav Sci 33(3):207–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weber CL, Peters GP, Guan D, Hubacek K (2008) The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change. Energy Policy 36:3572–3577

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wintour P, Elliot L (2009) G8 agrees to climate targets despite differences with developing nations. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jul/08/g8-climate-carbon-emission-targets. Accessed 3 Mar 2015

  • Xu H, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2009) Multiple levels of preference in interactive strategic decisions. Discrete Appl Math 57:3300–3313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yueh L (2014) Is China about to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy? BBC News Business, April 30, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27216705. Accessed 23 Jan 2015

  • Zhai Q (2000) China and the Vietnam Wars, 1950–1975. University of North Carolina Press, Charlotte

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their appreciation to the anonymous referees who provided useful suggestions for improving their paper. Sean Bernath Walker would like to thank the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) for its support of this research and his doctoral studies. CIGI is a renowned nonpartisan think tank, located in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, that investigates international governance challenges, including important environmental policy problems, through collaboration with governments, businesses and academia. K.W. Hipel is a Senior Fellow at CIGI and Fellow at the Balsillie School of International Affairs. They would also like to thank Mr. Conrad Hipel for his expert editing of the paper as well as Mr. Yi Xiao and Ms. Amanda Garcia for their assistance with the final revisions to the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, 36609, USA

    Sean B. Walker

  2. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada

    Keith W. Hipel

  3. Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, ON, N2L 6C2, Canada

    Keith W. Hipel

  4. Balsillie School of International Affairs, Waterloo, ON, N2L 6C2, Canada

    Keith W. Hipel

Authors
  1. Sean B. Walker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Keith W. Hipel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sean B. Walker.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Walker, S.B., Hipel, K.W. Strategy, Complexity and Cooperation: The Sino-American Climate Regime. Group Decis Negot 26, 997–1027 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-017-9528-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-017-9528-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation