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A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change

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Abstract

Climate change is one of several threats that will increase the likelihood that forest tree species could experience population-level extirpation or species-level extinction. Scientists and managers from throughout the United States Forest Service have cooperated to develop a framework for conservation priority-setting assessments of forest tree species. This framework uses trait data and predictions of expected climate change pressure to categorize and prioritize 339 native tree species for conservation, monitoring, management and restoration across all forested lands in the contiguous United States and Alaska. The framework allows for the quantitative grouping of species into vulnerability classes that may require different management and conservation strategies for maintaining the adaptive genetic variation of the species within each group. This categorization is based on risk factors relating to the species’ (1) exposure to climate change, (2) sensitivity to climate change, and (3) capacity to adapt to climate change. We used K-means clustering to group species into seven classes based on these three vulnerability dimensions. The most vulnerable class encompassed 35 species with high scores for all three vulnerability dimensions. These will require the most immediate conservation intervention. A group of 43 species had high exposure and sensitivity, probably requiring conservation assistance, while a group of 69 species had high exposure and low adaptive capacity, probably needing close monitoring. This assessment tool should be valuable for scientists and managers determining which species and populations to target for monitoring efforts and for pro-active gene conservation and management activities.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Julie Canavin, Maria Eugenia Escanferla, Brunell Gugelmann, Ana Castillo and Ti’Era Worsley for their work collecting and tabulating much of the species trait data used in this assessment. We appreciate the advice and discussion of Carol Aubry, Andy Bower, Warren Devine, Frank Koch, Kurt Riitters, and Mark Ambrose. We also thank Gary Man and Danny Lee for coordinating the funding of this project, to Jim Fox for facilitating the workshop, and to the members of the workshop planning committee (Jim Fox, David Gwaze, Valerie Hipkins, Randy Johnson, Gary Man, David Peterson, and Keith Woeste) and to the other workshop participants (Paul Berrang, Tom Blush, Barry Bollenbacher, Andy Bower, William Carromero, Gregg DeNitto, Don Duerr, Craig Echt, Vicky Erickson, Brian Jackson, Danny Lee, Mary Frances Maholovich, Rob Mangold, Ron Overton, David Pivorunas, Claudia Regan, Barb Schrader, Richard Sniezko, Brad St. Clair, and Jim Youtz). This work was supported by in part through Research Joint Venture Agreement 13-JV-11330110-072 between the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, and North Carolina State University.

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  1. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 3041 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, Raleigh, NC, 27709, USA

    Kevin M. Potter

  2. Southern Region, National Forest System, USDA Forest Service, Atlanta, GA, 30309, USA

    Barbara S. Crane

  3. Eastern Forest Environmental Risk Assessment Center (EFETAC), Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Asheville, NC, 28804, USA

    William W. Hargrove

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  1. Kevin M. Potter
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Correspondence to Kevin M. Potter.

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Potter, K.M., Crane, B.S. & Hargrove, W.W. A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change. New Forests 48, 275–300 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-017-9569-5

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