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Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science

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Abstract

A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5–10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be “simple” (amenable to solutions from science alone), “complicated” (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), “complex” (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or “chaotic” (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.

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Notes

  1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/455931/urbanization-in-south-africa/.

  2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/populism-what-is-yougov-cambridge-globalism-project-methodology.

  3. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/01/revealed-populists-more-likely-believe-conspiracy-theories-vaccines.

  4. https://www.groundup.org.za/article/rush-drill-water-could-threaten-our-future-water-supply/.

  5. https://www.groundup.org.za/article/uct-scientists-convince-city-be-more-cautious-table-mountain-group-aquifer/.

  6. https://irr.org.za/media/articles-authored-by-the-institute/pressing-hunger-for-land-the-stats-show-something-different.

  7. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-03-26-china-the-pondo-king-and-namaqualand-in-pursuit-of-the-disney-playground-deal/.

  8. https://mg.co.za/article/2019-01-11-00-the-exotic-game-market-goes-bang.

  9. https://ncas.ac.uk/en/18-news/3012-using-weather-radar-to-monitor-insect-decline-around-the-world.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Harry Biggs, Ian Little, Peter Lukey, Tlou Masehela, Christy Bragg, Galen Hosack and Kristin Hagan for their contribution of issues for the horizon scan. We also thank Nancy Job for comments on the disaster management section. The South African National Biodiversity Institute provided funding to carry out the Horizon Scan meeting.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Private Bag X7, Claremont, 7735, South Africa

    Colleen L. Seymour, Matthew F. Child, Krystal A. Tolley, Jock C. Curie, Jessica M. da Silva, Andrew L. Skowno & Ruan Veldtman

  2. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, PO Box 320, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa

    Patrick J. O’Farrell

  3. Plant Conservation Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa

    Lindsey Gillson & Andrew L. Skowno

  4. Department of Zoology, Centre for Ecological Genomics and Wildlife Conservation, University of Johannesburg, P.O. Box 524, Auckland Park, 2000, South Africa

    Krystal A. Tolley

  5. Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, PO Box 77000, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa

    Jock C. Curie

  6. Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag x1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa

    Jessica M. da Silva

  7. School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2050, South Africa

    Graham J. Alexander

  8. Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa

    Pippin Anderson

  9. Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, Pietermaritzburg, 3209, South Africa

    Colleen T. Downs, David A. Ehlers Smith & Yvette C. Ehlers Smith

  10. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA

    Benis N. Egoh

  11. Centre for Invasion Biology and Department of Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag x1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa

    Karen J. Esler

  12. FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa

    Colleen L. Seymour & Patrick J. O’Farrell

  13. NextGen Health Cluster, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, P.O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

    Essa Suleman

  14. National Zoological Garden, South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), 232 Boom Street, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

    Essa Suleman

  15. Department of Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag x1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa

    Ruan Veldtman

  16. Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20 Hatfield, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa

    Matthew F. Child

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  1. Colleen L. Seymour
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Correspondence to Colleen L. Seymour.

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Seymour, C.L., Gillson, L., Child, M.F. et al. Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science. Ambio 49, 1211–1221 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01252-4

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