Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis.

Details

Ressource 1Download: elife-28721-v2.pdf (2239.04 [Ko])
State: Public
Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_D12FA23D375F
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis.
Journal
eLife
Author(s)
Turk T., Bachmann N., Kadelka C., Böni J., Yerly S., Aubert V., Klimkait T., Battegay M., Bernasconi E., Calmy A., Cavassini M., Furrer H., Hoffmann M., Günthard H.F., Kouyos R.D., Aubert V., Battegay M., Bernasconi E., Böni J., Braun D.L., Bucher H.C., Calmy A., Cavassini M., Ciuffi A., Dollenmaier G., Egger M., Elzi L., Fehr J., Fellay J., Furrer H., Fux C.A., Günthard H.F., Haerry D., Hasse B., Hirsch H.H., Hoffmann M., Hösli I., Kahlert C., Kaiser L., Keiser O., Klimkait T., Kouyos R.D., Kovari H., Ledergerber B., Martinetti G., Martinez de Tejada B., Marzolini C., Metzner K.J., Müller N., Nicca D., Pantaleo G., Paioni P., Rauch A., Rudin C., Scherrer A.U., Schmid P., Speck R., Stöckle M., Tarr P., Trkola A., Vernazza P., Wandeler G., Weber R., Yerly S.
Working group(s)
Swiss HIV Cohort Study
ISSN
2050-084X (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2050-084X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/09/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
6
Pages
1
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.
Keywords
Basic Reproduction Number, Cluster Analysis, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Epidemics, Female, HIV Infections/epidemiology, HIV Infections/transmission, HIV Infections/virology, Heterosexuality, Humans, Male, Models, Statistical, Molecular Epidemiology, Phylogeny, Switzerland/epidemiology, HIV, basic reproductive number, concentrated vs. generalised epidemic, epidemiology, global health, heterosexual, infectious disease, microbiology, molecular epidemiology, transmission, virus
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
25/09/2017 9:37
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:51
Usage data