Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe.

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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_AED43D8DAB5D
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe.
Journal
PloS one
Author(s)
Locatelli I., Trächsel B., Rousson V.
ISSN
1932-6203 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1932-6203
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2021
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
16
Number
3
Pages
e0248731
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe.
Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature.
Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6).
The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
Keywords
Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data, COVID-19/epidemiology, Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data, Europe/epidemiology, Humans, SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
APC
1695 USD
Create date
18/03/2021 12:46
Last modification date
06/07/2021 6:12
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