Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

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State: Public
Version: author
Serval ID
serval:BIB_24A209ABCE0C
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.
Journal
Annals of oncology
Author(s)
Carioli G., La Vecchia C., Bertuccio P., Rodriguez T., Levi F., Boffetta P., Negri E., Malvezzi M.
ISSN
1569-8041 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0923-7534
Publication state
Published
Issued date
01/09/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
28
Number
9
Pages
2286-2297
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer.
We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017.
Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba.
Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.
Keywords
Age Factors, Aging, Death Certificates, Female, Humans, Latin America/epidemiology, Male, Neoplasms/classification, Neoplasms/mortality, Population Dynamics, Latin America, cancer, lung cancer, mortality, projections, tobacco
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
11/07/2017 9:07
Last modification date
20/08/2019 13:02
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