Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event

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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_0DBE6F61675C
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Author(s)
González-Alemán Juan J., Grams Christian M., Ayarzagüena Blanca, Zurita-Gotor Pablo, Domeisen Daniela I. V., Gómara Iñigo, Rodríguez-Fonseca Belén, Vitart Frédéric
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Publication state
Published
Issued date
16/01/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
49
Number
1
Language
english
Abstract
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can have a strong impact on the troposphere. Their fingerprint is often associated with the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and extreme weather with high societal impact. However, the mechanisms behind this downward impact are not well understood. We investigate this surface impact through its associated predictability limits, by studying the 2018 SSW event. We search for predictability barriers that occurred after the onset of the SSW and before its surface impact. It is found that dynamical tropospheric events consisting of two cyclogenesis events were the main reasons for these predictability barriers in the prediction of negative NAM/NAO anomalies reaching the surface. This work corroborates that individual synoptic events might constitute predictability barriers during the downward impact of SSW events, and thereby sheds light on stratosphere-troposphere coupling.
Keywords
General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
08/03/2022 10:37
Last modification date
06/04/2022 6:08
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