Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation

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Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Author(s)
Mod H.K., Luoto M.
ISSN
1748-9326
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Number
12
Pages
124028
Language
english
Abstract
Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments-a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.
Keywords
biotic interactions, climate change, shrub, spatial modelling, tundra, vegetation
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
02/02/2017 9:29
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:34
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