Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: How task characteristics influence responses

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Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_16F8649ADBA6
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: How task characteristics influence responses
Journal
Frontiers in Psychology
Author(s)
Hafenbrädl S., Hoffrage U.
ISSN
1664-1078
Publication state
Published
Issued date
08/2015
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
6
Number
939
Pages
1-15
Language
english
Abstract
In research on Bayesian inferences, the specific tasks, with their narratives and characteristics, are typically seen as exchangeable vehicles that merely transport the structure of the problem to research participants. In the present paper, we explore whether, and possibly how, task characteristics that are usually ignored influence participants' responses in these tasks. We focus on both quantitative dimensions of the tasks, such as their base rates, hit rates, and false-alarm rates, as well as qualitative characteristics, such as whether the task involves a norm violation or not, whether the stakes are high or low, and whether the focus is on the individual case or on the numbers. Using a data set of 19 different tasks presented to 500 different participants who provided a total of 1,773 responses, we analyze these responses in two ways: first, on the level of the numerical estimates themselves, and second, on the level of various response strategies, Bayesian and non-Bayesian, that might have produced the estimates. We identified various contingencies, and most of the task characteristics had an influence on participants' responses. Typically, this influence has been stronger when the numerical information in the tasks was presented in terms of probabilities or percentages, compared to natural frequencies - and this effect cannot be fully explained by a higher proportion of Bayesian responses when natural frequencies were used. One characteristic that did not seem to influence participants' response strategy was the numerical value of the Bayesian solution itself. Our exploratory study is a first step toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences, and highlights new avenues for future research.
Keywords
Bayesian inference, Updating beliefs, Ecological analysis, Task characteristics, Baserate, Signal-detection, Representation format, Natural frequencies
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
01/04/2016 15:28
Last modification date
20/08/2019 12:46
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